EQUITY RESEARCH | INITIATION
Acba Bank OJSC (AMX: ACBA)
Valuation date: 31 December 2025 Report date: 30 June 2026 Expected total return: 41.5%
Investment thesis
RecommendationBUY
Rating scale: Buy >+15% | Hold −10% to +15% | Sell <−10% expected total return over a 12-month horizon.
12-month target
AMD 25 747
Price (June 30, 2026)
AMD 19 000
Upside to target
+36%
At our 31 December 2025 valuation date, Acba traded at AMD 15,600 — 0.48x book and 2.6x earnings against a 20% return on equity. That is a discount more typical of a troubled lender than of a bank rated at the sovereign ceiling by both Moody's and Fitch. Three independent valuation methods converge on a fair value of AMD 30,303 per share. By our 30 June 2026 report date the shares had re-rated 22% to AMD 19,000, narrowing the discount to fair value from 49% to 37% — evidence the gap is closing, but most of it remains.
We set a 12-month target of AMD 25,757, reflecting partial rather than full convergence to fair value, and rate ACBA a Buy.
ISSUER-PAID RESEARCH
This note was prepared under an issuer-paid arrangement with Acba Bank OJSC for a fixed fee that is independent of its conclusions, the rating assigned, and the target price. MB Consulting retains full editorial control over methodology, assumptions, and conclusions. Full disclosures, including relationship and personal holding disclosures, appear at the end of Equity Research Note downloadable from this page.
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Fair value is derived from three independent methods applied to the consolidated group: free cash flow to equity, justified price-to-book, and an excess return model. Each is equally weighted. The 12-month target price applies a 15% convergence discount to blended fair value, reflecting expected partial rather than full closure of the discount over the horizon. Key assumptions are disclosed in the valuation section above.